The report for the July-September period indicates that after three quarters of marked weakness in the local economic performance, a higher GDP rate was detected in the third quarter of this year, higher than the forecast in the previous report.

This, in addition to information from the previous quarters, led Banxico to revise upward the expected growth for the whole year.

The forecasts for 2025 incorporate the expectation of lower dynamism in private investment than previously anticipated, as a reflection of greater uncertainty associated with external and internal factors.

Meanwhile, the forecast for GDP expansion for the coming year remains unchanged from the previous report (1.2 percent), and the variation range fluctuates from 0.4 to 2.0 percent. For 2026 a growth forecast of between 1.0 and 2.6 is under consideration.

“The forecast horizon for the national economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace. This growth would be mainly supported by private consumption and, to a lesser extent, by private investment,” said Banxico.

The Bank considered that the balance of risks for economic growth continues to point downwards.

Among these risks Banxico considers a lesser than expected increase in the United States economy, and the growing sense of uncertainty related to the policies that could be implemented in that country, particularly in trade.

Banxico expects inflation to be 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

ied/jha/las