In November there could be 260 and in December 270, since those months show the greatest commercial and economic movement, said the analyst at the National Economic Research Center (CIEN), Walter Menchú.

With these figures there would be 2,980 violent deaths throughout the country at the end of 2023, a decrease in relation to the 3,000 in the previous annual period, said the specialist, cited by the local newspaper Prensa Libre.

The homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants would thus be reduced from 17.3 in 2022 to 16.9 at the end of this year, according to statistics.

The National Civil Police reported that 280 criminal acts occurred last October and 247 in September, while evaluations indicate that the peaks of deaths due to the use of force vary by month or season, such as Easter or the end of the year.

The researcher at the Violence Observatory, Daniel Núñez, described that since last April they also recorded “more homicides than they expected” and until October they documented 2,457.

“It is likely that the year will end with slightly fewer murders than in 2022, but perhaps more than the upper limit we expected, of 2,869,” he said.

“This is important, because it means that although the long-term downward trend since 2009 continues, the increase could be more pronounced in the coming months and the situation may begin to reverse,” stated the expert.

The former vice minister of the Interior and security analyst Mario Mérida exposed the existence of under-recording in the statistics.

People who die in hospitals are not documented because they are not considered victims of homicidal violence, he stressed.

This under-registration of victims also applies to extortion or vehicle theft, because not everyone reports, the former official clarified.

Insecurity due to such a scourge, analysts emphasize, has a direct impact on people’s behavior patterns, limiting their public coexistence, recreation and movement through certain areas and times throughout Guatemala.

ef/lam/znc