According to new estimates released by the agency, the volume of merchandise trade will grow by 0.8 percent, which represents less than half of the 1.7 increase forecast in April.

The WTO stated that the forecast for merchandise trade growth of 3.3 percent for 2024 has practically not changed compared to the last estimate.

Regarding the real-world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the WTO estimates that it will grow by 2.6 percent in the current year, and by 2.5 in 2024.

According to the report, trade and production slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022, as the effects of persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy were felt in the United States, the European Union, and other countries. Another cause is the weakening of the property market in China, which prevented a greater recovery from being consolidated after the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.

The aforementioned factors have clouded the outlook for world trade, whose slowdown appears to be widespread, affecting a large number of countries and a wide range of goods. Global trade growth should rebound next year, accompanied by a slow but stable increase in GDP.

The Director-General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, recently suggested that the slowdown in trade expected for 2023 is worrying, as it has unfavorable effects on the standard of living of people around the world. Fragmentation of the global economy would simply exacerbate these problems, and therefore member countries of the organization must seize the opportunity to strengthen the trading environment, avoiding protectionism and fostering a more resilient and inclusive global economy.

The global economy, and particularly that of poor nations, will struggle to recover without a stable, open, predictable, rules-based and equitable multilateral trading system, the Director-General stressed.

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