With drastic action now needed to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C, the scientists warn that recent extremes in Antarctica may be the tip of the iceberg.

The study reviews evidence of extreme events in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, including weather, sea ice, ocean temperatures, glacier and ice shelf systems, and biodiversity on land and sea.

It concludes that Antarctica’s fragile environments “may well be subject to considerable stress and damage in future years and decades” — and calls for urgent policy action to protect it.

“Antarctic change has global implications,” said lead author Professor Martin Siegert, from the University of Exeter. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero is our best hope of preserving Antarctica, and this must matter to every country — and individual — on the planet.”

Professor Siegert said the rapid changes now happening in Antarctica could place many countries in breach of an international treaty.

“Nations must understand that by continuing to explore, extract and burn fossil fuels anywhere in the world, the environment of Antarctica will become ever more affected in ways inconsistent with their pledge.”

The researchers considered the vulnerability of Antarctica to a range of extreme events, to understand the causes and likely future changes — following a series of recent extremes.

For example, the world’s largest recorded heatwave (38.5°C above the mean) occurred in East Antarctica in 2022 and, at present, winter sea ice formation is the lowest on record.

Extreme events can also affect biodiversity. For example, high temperatures have been linked to years with lower krill numbers, leading to breeding failures of krill-reliant predators — evidenced by many dead fur seal pups on beaches.

pll/lam/joe