New estimates predict the number will rise from 529 million in 2021 to more than 1.3 billion in 2050. No country is expected to see a decline in its diabetes rate over the next 30 years. The findings were published in The Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journals.

The increase in prevalence globally is not uniform: Some countries and regions are particularly badly hit. For example, prevalence rates are expected to reach 16.8% in North Africa and the Middle East and 11.3% in Latin America and the Caribbean by 2050, compared to an estimated 9.8% globally. Currently, the prevalence is 6.1%. But every country will be impacted, researchers said.

The lowest rates were reported in Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

“Diabetes was especially evident in people aged 65 and older in all countries, registering a prevalence rate of over 20% worldwide. The highest rate was 24.4% for individuals aged 75 to 79,” the article added.

Nearly all of the global cases, 96% are type 2 diabetes, and of all the factors elevated body mass index was the main risk, which is responsible for disability and mortality.

Other risks include dietary, environmental, occupational, tobacco use, low physical activity and alcohol consumption.

“The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming but also challenging for every health system in the world,” said Liane Ong, lead author of the paper, pointing out that the condition is linked to a number of other heart conditions such as heart disease and stroke.

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