Although the last three months are the most dangerous with the highest rate of storms according to studies and statistics, calculations also highlight that the tropical phenomena in this region, comprising the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, will generate less accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) this year.
According to the information by the Weather Forecast Center of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), 11 named cyclones will be formed this year, seven will be developed in the Atlantic Ocean region, two in the Caribbean Sea, and two in the Gulf of Mexico. Five could reach hurricane status.
Specialists from that institution point out that at least one hurricane originated and intensified in the Caribbean Sea, and one of Atlantic origin entering the Caribbean will be moderate.
The danger that Cuba should be affected by at least one tropical cyclone with a hurricane category is at 35 percent.
The occurrence of a new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in the Pacific Ocean during the second half of the year could reduce cyclone activity this season.
jrr/iff/jf/crc