It is not something to be confident of, nonetheless, as if Morena can achieve a victory comfortably at the state elections, it does not seem to be as much movement at the Chamber of Deputies, which is not news for the opposition either.

Upon considering the results of the polls and looking at a balance or average, these put Morena at the head by seats, but far from achieving a qualified single majority, which is why it will have to resort to alliances just at it has done so far.

The ‘polls concentrate’ shows three scenarios, close to reality despite hypothetical. In the first one, Morena achieves single majority with no need for an alliance.

In the second, it will keep the qualified majority it has so far, but together with its main allies, the Work and Green parties.

The third is a pessimistic one, showing that even with support from those parties, it will not win the seats needed to rule in the Lower House and will have to bring other

groups into the fold.

jg/llp/mem/lma